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What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
Knowing the range of expectations is important, but the distribution of forecasts is another key input in the market's reaction.
market overview
Pound Sterling weakens despite UK seems in better position after Liberation Day
Pound Sterling weakens despite UK seems in better position after Liberation Day
The Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms its major peers, except antipodeans, on Friday.
NFP
TradeWar
Fed
SEO
GBPUSD
Forex Today: US Dollar selloff pauses ahead of NFP, Powell speech
Forex Today: US Dollar selloff pauses ahead of NFP, Powell speech
Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 4:
NFP
Currencies
TradeWar
Majors
EconomicIndicator
Germany March construction PMI 40.3 vs 41.2 prior
Germany March construction PMI 40.3 vs 41.2 prior
Latest data released by HCOB - 4 April 2025
Traders continue to bet aggressively on Fed rate cuts
Traders continue to bet aggressively on Fed rate cuts
Easing expectations for the major central banks continue to increase fast amid recessionary fears
market overview
Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Friday, early in the European session.
Oil
WTI
Commodities
Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Friday, according to FXStreet data.
Platinum
Palladium
Commodities
European indices hold lower at the open as risk stays on the defensive
European indices hold lower at the open as risk stays on the defensive
The risk retreat holds as we look to the US jobs report later next
EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates down at the start of the European session
EUR/INR today: Indian Rupee cross rates down at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade with a negative bias at the start of Friday, according to FXStreet data.
USD/CHF slumps to near 0.8550 amid Trump tariff uncertainty, US NFP data in focus
USD/CHF slumps to near 0.8550 amid Trump tariff uncertainty, US NFP data in focus
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to around 0.8550 during the early European session on Friday, pressured by the weaker US Dollar (USD). The Swiss Franc (CHF) gathers strength against the Greenback amid an increased risk-off mood by investors.
Majors
USDCHF
Switzerland
Macroeconomics
What are the main events for today?
What are the main events for today?
The highlights include the Canadian Employment report, the US NFP and Fed Chair Powell
market overview
FX option expiries for Apr 4 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 4 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 4 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.
Currencies
Options
Eurostoxx futures -0.2% in early European trading
Eurostoxx futures -0.2% in early European trading
A slight recovery from the lows earlier ahead of the open
German Factory Orders arrive at 0% MoM in February vs. 3.5% expected
German Factory Orders arrive at 0% MoM in February vs. 3.5% expected
The official data published by the Federal Statistics Office showed Friday that Germany's Factory Orders showed no growth in February, suggesting that the country’s manufacturing sector is stagnating.
EURUSD
Germany
EconomicIndicator
IndustrialProduction
EUR/USD rises above 1.1050 ahead of US NFP release
EUR/USD rises above 1.1050 ahead of US NFP release
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day around 1.1080 during the early European session on Friday bolstered by the broader US Dollar weakness. Investors await the German Factory Orders and US employment report, which will be published later on Friday.
EURUSD
Majors
Macroeconomics
India Gold price today: Gold extends profit-taking decline ahead of US NFP, Powell
India Gold price today: Gold extends profit-taking decline ahead of US NFP, Powell
After the overnight corrective pullback in Comex Gold from all-time highs, Gold price in India also follows suit on Friday.
Gold
India
Fed
Commodities
NFP
NZD/USD tumbles below 0.5750 amid US-China trade tensions, RBNZ rate cut bets
NZD/USD tumbles below 0.5750 amid US-China trade tensions, RBNZ rate cut bets
The NZD/USD pair falls to near 0.5720 during the early European session on Friday. The fears of an escalation of a trade war between the United States (US) and China exert some selling pressure on the China-proxy Kiwi.
Majors
NZDUSD
Macroeconomics
WTI struggles near multi-week low, below $66.00 amid rising trade tensions
WTI struggles near multi-week low, below $66.00 amid rising trade tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices trade with negative bias for the fourth straight day on Friday and slide back below the $66.00/barrel mark during the Asian session.
Oil
Commodities
TradeWar
OPEC
WTI
Breaking: US Nonfarm Payrolls increase by 228,000 in March vs. 135,000 forecast
Breaking: US Nonfarm Payrolls increase by 228,000 in March vs. 135,000 forecast
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the US rose by 228,000 in March, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading followed the 117,000 increase (revised from 151,000) recorded in February and surpassed the market expectation of 135,000 by a wide margin.
Breaking
NFP
UnitedStates
SEO
EconomicIndicator
AUD/USD plummets below mid-0.6200s as trade-war fears lift RBA rate cut bets
AUD/USD plummets below mid-0.6200s as trade-war fears lift RBA rate cut bets
The AUD/USD pair comes under intense selling pressure during the Asian session on Friday and retreats further from a nearly three-week high, around the 0.6400 neighborhood touched the previous day.
NFP
Currencies
TradeWar
AUDUSD
RiskAversion
JP Morgan raises odds of a global recession to 60% by year-end
JP Morgan raises odds of a global recession to 60% by year-end
That's a notable step up from their previous probability projection of 40%
market overview
Nomura sees the Fed cutting interest rates once this year in December
Nomura sees the Fed cutting interest rates once this year in December
The firm previously saw no rate cuts for the Fed all through 2025
Gold price keeps the red below $3,100; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus
Gold price keeps the red below $3,100; looks to US NFP for fresh impetus
Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone through the first half of the European session on Friday and currently trades below the $3,100 mark, down for the second successive day.
NFP
TradeWar
SEO
Gold
Commodities
Nomura now sees the ECB cutting rates this month
Nomura now sees the ECB cutting rates this month
The firm previously only forecast the ECB to cut rates in June
Heads up - Australia switches off daylight saving this weekend
Heads up - Australia switches off daylight saving this weekend
If you are trading Australian markets from offshore you may need to adjust your times
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap:  Trump ready to negotiate on tariffs
ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Trump ready to negotiate on tariffs
Forex news for Asian trading on Friday, April 4, 2025
Session wrap
Wrap Asia
AUD and NZD losing ground
AUD and NZD losing ground
Expectations of central bank rate cuts in both countries have heightened after the latest tariff war launch by Trump on Wednesday
AUD
NZD
Trump has fired NSA Director Timothy Haugh
Trump has fired NSA Director Timothy Haugh
National Security Agency head
Politics
USD
USD/CAD hangs near multi-month low, below 1.4100 ahead of US/Canadian jobs data
USD/CAD hangs near multi-month low, below 1.4100 ahead of US/Canadian jobs data
The USD/CAD pair remains under some selling pressure for the fourth straight day on Friday and currently trades around the 1.4070 area, down 0.15% for the day.
USDCAD
TradeWar
NFP
Currencies
Fed
USD/INR tumbles as traders brace for US NFP release
USD/INR tumbles as traders brace for US NFP release
The Indian Rupee (INR) trades on a positive note on Friday. A robust recovery in local equities provides some support to the Indian currency. Additionally, the safe haven status of the US Dollar (USD) might be diminished due to concerns about how trade policy may impact growth in the US.
EmergingMarkets
SEO
USDINR
India
Macroeconomics
Japanese Yen consolidates near multi-month top against USD as traders await US NFP report
Japanese Yen consolidates near multi-month top against USD as traders await US NFP report
The Japanese Yen (JPY) seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses against its American counterpart heading into the European session on Friday and remains close to a multi-month peak touched the previous day.
NFP
TradeWar
BOJ
SEO
USDJPY
Goldman Sachs cuts oil price forecasts amid tariff concerns and rising OPEC+ supply
Goldman Sachs cuts oil price forecasts amid tariff concerns and rising OPEC+ supply
GS cut its December 2025 Brent and WTI forecasts by $5, to $66 and $62, respectively
BoJ’s Ueda says US tariffs likely to exert downward pressure on Japan, global economies
BoJ’s Ueda says US tariffs likely to exert downward pressure on Japan, global economies
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said early Friday that US tariffs are likely to exert downward pressure on Japan and the global economies.
BOJ
CentralBanks
Japan
Macroeconomics
AUD/USD posts modest gains above 0.6300 as Trump tariffs fuel recession fears
AUD/USD posts modest gains above 0.6300 as Trump tariffs fuel recession fears
The AUD/USD pair edges higher to around 0.6330 during the early Asian session on  Friday. The US Dollar (USD) weakens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as US President Donald Trump's fresh trade tariffs stoke fears of a global recession.
AUDUSD
Majors
Macroeconomics