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US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 219K last week
US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 219K last week
US citizens filing new applications for unemployment insurance ticked lower to 219K for the week ending March 29, as reported by the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This print missed initial estimates and was lower than the previous week's revised tally of 225K (revised from 224K).
Employment
EconomicIndicator
UnitedStates
DollarIndex
US trade balance -$122.7 billion vs -$123.5 billion expected
US trade balance -$122.7 billion vs -$123.5 billion expected
US trade balance slightly better than anticipated
Lutnick: I don't think there will be exemptions
Lutnick: I don't think there will be exemptions
Comments from the Commerce Secretary on CNBC
Politics
US Commerce Sec. Lutnick: Most countries to examine trade policies after Trump's reciprocal tariffs
US Commerce Sec. Lutnick: Most countries to examine trade policies after Trump's reciprocal tariffs
In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that he expects most countries to start to really examine their trade policies after US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff announcements, per Reuters.
TradeWar
UnitedStates
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar, stocks slammed as Trump tariffs rattle markets
ForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar, stocks slammed as Trump tariffs rattle markets
Forex news from the European morning session on Apr 3, 2025
Session wrap
Wrap Europe
USD/CAD tumbles to near 1.4100 as US Dollar nosedives on US recession risks
USD/CAD tumbles to near 1.4100 as US Dollar nosedives on US recession risks
The USD/CAD pair faces a sharp sell-off and slides to near 1.4100 during European trading hours on Thursday. The Loonie pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) nosedives after the release of the reciprocal tariff plan by United States (US) President Donald Trump on Wednesday.
Canada
TradeWar
USDCAD
UnitedStates
Inflation
ECB Accounts: Uncertainty calls for caution in policy-setting and in communication
ECB Accounts: Uncertainty calls for caution in policy-setting and in communication
The accounts of the European Central Bank's (ECB) March policy meeting showed on Thursday that likely shocks are on the horizon, including from escalating trade tensions, and uncertainty more generally, per Reuters.
ECB
CentralBanks
USD/JPY can continue to weaken – UOB Group
USD/JPY can continue to weaken – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could continue to weaken vs Japanese Yen (JPY); oversold conditions suggest any decline is unlikely to reach 146.50 today. In the longer run, increase in momentum indicates further USD weakness; the level to watch is 146.50, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY
Banks
EUR/USD adds to initial gains and breaches 1.09 – Danske Bank
EUR/USD adds to initial gains and breaches 1.09 – Danske Bank
EUR/USD seesawed on yesterday's tariff announcement, initially rallying above 1.09 on the relatively benign 10% flat tariff applied to all US trading partners, declining on the more aggressive reciprocal tariff measures, and then moving back above 1.09 again, Danske Bank's FX analyst Stefan Mellin r
Technical Analysis
EURUSD
Banks
US Dollar unable to recover as losses already amount to an excessive 2.10% in the DXY
US Dollar unable to recover as losses already amount to an excessive 2.10% in the DXY
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is getting knocked out and is against the canvas.
TradeWar
UnitedStates
SEO
Macroeconomics
DollarIndex
US March Challenger layoffs 275.24k vs 172.02k prior
US March Challenger layoffs 275.24k vs 172.02k prior
Latest data released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. - 3 April 2025
USD/JPY: Low achieved last month at 146.50/145.80 is first support – Societe Generale
USD/JPY: Low achieved last month at 146.50/145.80 is first support – Societe Generale
USD/JPY rebound petered out at the 200-DMA near 151.30/151.60 last month, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.
Technical Analysis
USDJPY
Banks
Putin says ready to keep fighting if he doesn't like Ukraine deal
Putin says ready to keep fighting if he doesn't like Ukraine deal
The Russian president says he will have to see if Trump can deliver on Ukraine concessions
Politics
OPEC+ agrees to stick to further production hike in May
OPEC+ agrees to stick to further production hike in May
But they will be pushing out more production next month than previously planned
S&P 500 is starting to roll over ahead of the US session open
S&P 500 is starting to roll over ahead of the US session open
The S&P 500 sold off yesterday following the tariffs announcement but stalled around the March lows. Will we continue lower or do we get a bounce?
S&P Futures
AUD/USD jumps to near 0.6350 as US Dollar plummets after Trump’s tariff plan
AUD/USD jumps to near 0.6350 as US Dollar plummets after Trump’s tariff plan
The AUD/USD pair moves higher and advances toward the two-week high of 0.6350 in Thursday’s European session.
Recession
China
Fed
UnitedStates
AUDUSD
USD/JPY: Safe-haven flows push the pair downwards – OCBC
USD/JPY: Safe-haven flows push the pair downwards – OCBC
USD/JPY fell as demand for safe-haven overwhelms even as Japan is slapped with 24% reciprocal tariff rate.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis
Banks
NZD/USD: Current price movements are likely part of a range – UOB Group
NZD/USD: Current price movements are likely part of a range – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is expected to trade in a 0.5670/0.5770 range vs US Dollar (USD). NZD rebounded two days ago and closed at 0.5701. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a 0.5640/0.5800 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
Banks
NZDUSD
EU trade commissioner says will talk to US counterparts tomorrow
EU trade commissioner says will talk to US counterparts tomorrow
Remarks by EU trade commissioner, Maroš Šefčovič
EU to vote on countermeasures to US steel, aluminum tariffs on 9 April
EU to vote on countermeasures to US steel, aluminum tariffs on 9 April
This is in response to the tariffs from last month
Politics
DXY: ISM services, payrolls next – OCBC
DXY: ISM services, payrolls next – OCBC
Varied reaction in FX markets with open trade, growth-sensitive FX such as CNH, KRW, SGD, MYR and THB under some pressure post-tariff announcement. DXY was last seen at 102 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Technical Analysis
Banks
DollarIndex
The dollar hemorrhage continues in European trading
The dollar hemorrhage continues in European trading
No stopping the bleeding for the time being
Oil: Tariffs weigh on oil – ING
Oil: Tariffs weigh on oil – ING
Oil prices are under pressure this morning, following other risk assets lower, after the Trump administration unveiled a base tariff of 10% on all imports from all trading partners.
Oil
Energy
Commodities
Banks
AUD/USD: Set to continue trading in a choppy manner – UOB Group
AUD/USD: Set to continue trading in a choppy manner – UOB Group
AUD could continue to trade in a choppy manner, likely between 0.6220 and 0.6320. In the longer run, sharp but short-lived swings have resulted in a mixed outlook; AUD could trade in a 0.6185/0.6340 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Technical Analysis
Banks
AUDUSD
EUR/USD rallies as US Dollar bleeds after Liberation Day
EUR/USD rallies as US Dollar bleeds after Liberation Day
EUR/USD climbs to its highest level since October around 1.1145 in Thursday’s North American session and gains an almost 2.5% on the day.
ECB
EURUSD
TradeWar
SEO
USDCHF breaks out of the range and collapses amid risk-off flows
USDCHF breaks out of the range and collapses amid risk-off flows
The USDCHF pair is experiencing a strong selloff amid the technical breakout and risk-off flows triggered by Trump's tariffs announcement
Deutsche Bank warns of a dollar confidence crisis
Deutsche Bank warns of a dollar confidence crisis
They have been keeping at this for a while now in the past few weeks
Gold: Tariff relief for the metal industry – ING
Gold: Tariff relief for the metal industry – ING
Gold hit a record high following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
Technical Analysis
XAUUSD
Gold
Banks
Asian trading nations are being hit hard – ING
Asian trading nations are being hit hard – ING
A pair like CNH/JPY best characterises the mood in FX markets, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
China
Asia
Japan
USDCNH
Banks
Barclays warns of strong possibility of a US recession this year
Barclays warns of strong possibility of a US recession this year
The firm sees a "high risk" of a recession in the US economy
OPEC+ reportedly not expected to change oil output policy today
OPEC+ reportedly not expected to change oil output policy today
The ministerial talks have begun, according to sources from Reuters
USD: Blowback to US growth prospects dominates – ING
USD: Blowback to US growth prospects dominates – ING
The trade-weighted DXY has broken to a new low for the year as investors continue to fear what these new reciprocal tariffs mean for US confidence and activity, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
Technical Analysis
Banks
DollarIndex
Gold price briefly becomes falling knife with selling pressure picking up
Gold price briefly becomes falling knife with selling pressure picking up
Gold price (XAU/USD) sees selling pressure pick up towards the United States (US) trading session on Thursday, selling off over 1.25% towards $3,095 at the time of writing. Traders are taking profit, pushing the Bullion price below important pivotal levels.
TradeWar
UnitedStates
SEO
Gold
Commodities
Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.
Silver
Commodities
Metals
Crude oil feeling the pinch from global growth fears
Crude oil feeling the pinch from global growth fears
Crude oil sold off following the Trump's announcement as an expected slowdown in global growth is weighing on the market
Goldman Sachs estimates latest tariffs to weigh on China's GDP growth by a further 1%
Goldman Sachs estimates latest tariffs to weigh on China's GDP growth by a further 1%
That will take their estimate for the total drag on the Chinese economy to 1.7%